The new decade was both expected and feared. The beginning of a new decade has sown a climate of expectation among the most superstitious, convinced of the arrival of a great change. Something happened. But an unpredictable event such as the spread of an unknown virus had not been calculated by even the most catastrophic minds.
What is happening will inevitably have effects on public opinion. Above all, our trust in institutions will change, the level of which will according to their ability to manage the emergency. Citizens’ trust is not to be underestimated: it’s also responsible for the economic consequences of the country.
This is the result of a study carried out by Bocconi University in collaboration with the Barcelona School of Economics, which analyzed the data of the first frightening flu pandemic: the so-called “Spanish” that between 1918 and 1920 infected 500 million people throughout the world, killing 50 million. The study, published on Vox – the portal of the USA think thank Center of Economics Policy Research, aims to compare the Spanish influence with Covid-19 about the effects generated on citizens’ trust. The first pandemic sowed suspicion and resentment towards the government and the health system, considered responsible for the massacre. The institutions were unable to handle the emergency, probably due to the difficulty of communicating and the delicate post-World War historical context.
The analyzes of the two universities are based on the information collected by the witnesses of the old emergency, who told how the Spaniard was able to permanently change individual behavior in terms of social trust, limiting economic growth for many decades to come. This is still evident today: Endelman’s Trust Barometer 2020, which was presented in early February at the World Economic Forum in Davos, tells us that our time is characterized by a deep distrust. Endelman’s study shows that the vast majority of respondents (about 80%) point the finger at the four major institutions – government, business, media and NGOs – incapable of transparency and ethics.
The data of the second analysis, however, date back to before the spread of the infection in the western world. What has changed in the meantime? Another analysis by Standard Ethics – an independent sustainability rating company – responded that Italy reevaluated solidarity in the emergency deriving from the spread of Coronavirus. According to experts, if Italy continues to face the pandemic positively, it will be able to count on a return to optimism, with a good chance of being born again.
However the authors of the study of the two universities claim that
A lot of attention is needed in commenting on the final consequences of an ongoing crisis. However, history could be a warning for those countries that opt to limit their pandemic management to clear measures: if the epidemic spread widely and without control the cumulative economic costs to be paid in the long run could be even higher than expected.